Where the numbers come from.

The reference base.

Our models draw on approximately 1,000,000 historical business transactions, assembled from U.S. Small Business Administration loan and sale data, PitchBook, and Tagnifi, along with public filings and announced transactions. No single source is complete; together they give a working picture of what real buyers actually paid for real private businesses, across size bands, sectors, and years.

The simulations.

When we model a specific business (in paid engagements), we run its profile against each buyer lane's pricing behavior 10,000+ times per lane, varying the assumptions a real process would test, customer retention, key-staff continuity, earnings quality, financing conditions. The output is a distribution, a floor, a most-likely, a ceiling, per lane. Not one number, because no honest model produces one number.

The "1 in 3" retrade figure.

Industry studies and practitioner surveys of lower-middle-market M&A consistently find that roughly one-third of signed letters of intent are repriced downward or fail during diligence. Our own calibration work is consistent with that range for unprepared sellers. We use "~1 in 3" as a conservative shorthand, not a precise universal constant.

Published research.

Our analysis of GF Data's first-half-2025 transaction record, published by the Cordis Institute: The Buyer Lane Preparation Map and The Preparation Gap in Early 2026, found that across roughly three-quarters of sub-$50M transactions, post-LOI adjustments cut more than 15% off the deal price. Related coverage: "The New Players in Middle Market Mergers and Acquisitions" (Fast Company Executive Board, June 2026) and "Why Founders Should Build a Gap Table Before the Letter of Intent Arrives" (Forbes Business Council, June 2026), both by Ron Smith. Buyer-mix context: 73% of lower-middle-market transaction activity now goes to private-equity add-ons (Cherry Bekaert, Private Equity 2025 Trends and 2026 Outlook).

What's illustrative.

Composite examples (like "Apex Mechanical") are exactly that, composites. They represent the methodology faithfully; they are not real clients, and no real client's data appears in public materials.

What we are not.

Off-Market Method and Cordis Group provide analysis and education. Nothing on this site is an offer of securities, a business valuation for legal or tax purposes, or a solicitation to buy or sell any business. Readiness analysis is not a promise of any transaction outcome.